Photovoltaic Market Transactions During National Day Holiday? Will the Market Run Strong or Weak in October? [SMM Analysis]

Before the National Day, the photovoltaic market showed mixed trends. Polysilicon prices were firm; PV wafer prices slightly loosened under inventory pressure; prices of certain models of solar cells slightly rebounded due to procurement; module prices continued to weaken under the influence of several large tenders...

During the National Day holiday, there were a few representative transactions. After the holiday, October is a critical month for year-end photovoltaic installations. How will the market evolve across various segments?

For polysilicon, due to concentrated order signing in mid-to-late September, new orders during the National Day period were relatively few, mostly involving small deliveries. Currently, polysilicon prices are somewhat divided, with significant resistance for sales at 42 yuan and above and noticeable inventory accumulation. Prices around 40 yuan are relatively more acceptable, with some companies even facing "urgent delivery" situations.

Polysilicon companies are generally focused on the maintenance progress during the dry season in Tongwei in Sichuan. According to SMM, Tongwei's several production lines in Leshan may undergo maintenance in November, but a complete shutdown seems unlikely. This may impact subsequent polysilicon supply.

Regarding PV wafers, there were indeed some price fluctuations during the National Day. Some low-priced orders for 210RN appeared, and some older-sized wafer prices dropped to around 1.21 yuan/piece. The transaction focus for 183mm wafers also shifted down to 1.06 yuan/piece. According to SMM, domestic wafer inventory remains around 5 billion pieces, putting some pressure on companies to offload stock.

In October, the domestic wafer supply is expected to be 47.2 GW, indicating a supply gap compared to a solar cell production of 49 GW, but not enough to absorb the current inventory. For solar cells, prices slightly increased before the National Day due to market sentiment and downstream purchases, reaching 0.275 yuan/w. However, around the holiday, some orders were at 0.27 yuan/w, partly due to inventory pressure from some manufacturers and cost pressure from previous module price reductions.

In October, there is a noticeable supply gap for solar cells, which may provide some price support. However, due to insufficient market sentiment and confidence upstream and downstream, the price change for solar cells may be limited.

For the final module segment, according to SMM, there were no significant market fluctuations during the holiday. Before the holiday, several state-owned enterprises conducted consecutive tenders, with module bidding prices as low as slightly over 0.6 yuan. Currently, market confidence is generally lacking, and domestic module production in October is expected to recover to around 53 GW. However, this is lower than expected compared to previous peak seasons.